In all the hullabaloo over health care, there is one thing which I hope progressives, especially those in the Federal government, don't overlook. There has been much talk about the impact this fight has on President Obama's presidency (Senator Jim Demint saying it could be his Waterloo) or on the elctions in 2010 and 2012. However, I think it goes beyond even these future events.
If we look at history and the development of government and party politics, especially in the 20th Century, some trends become clear. Beginning with Teddy Roosevelt, we saw the beginning of an activist government led by a strong executive to bring about change for the benefit of the people. Taft disappointed Roosevelt and the progressives, leading to the divisive 1912 campaign and the election of Wilson who continued the thrust of the Roosevelt presidency. After World War I, the country was ready for a more settled time and, in Coolidge's famous words, the business of government was business. Andrew Mellon, one of the richest and biggest establishment figures in the country was a mainstay of Republican government during this decade. The Republicans believed that government's function was to promote free enterprise and get out of the way. This fell apart with the stock market crash in October, 1929 and the subsequent Depression. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Teddy's cousin and nephew by marriage, expanded on the first Roosevelt presidency and used government to lead the country out of depression, something that had never been done before.
FDR's presidency was a massive paradigm shift in American politics. Government was now seen as beneficial and even necessary for shepherding the economy and the country to prosperity. Many of the reforms enacted then are still with us today and some lasted until just recently. This also set the stage for the ascendancy of the Democratic Party for the next 36 years. Only the Vietnam War interrupted this ascendancy. Eisenhower, because he was a war hero, was an aberration.
The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 marked the beginning of another paradigm shift. Reagan, through his personal popularity, changed the political dialogue so that government was no longer seen as the solution, but the problem. Even Bill Clinton famously said that the era of big government was over. As with the 20's, the overreach by the Republicans and their corporate allies has led to another economic collapse. The election of President Obama, the promises he made and the challenges he faces have set the stage for another paradigm shift back to that established by FDR. If Obama takes a successful, activist role he can show that government is the solution, not the problem. In so doing, he can control the political dialogue and set the stage for Democratic ascendancy for the next 30 or 40 years.
The two biggest domestic challenges the President and his party face are the economy and fixing the health care system. As readers of this blog know, I firmly believe that his steps in the first area are in the right direction, but do not go far enough. While there needs to be major restructuring of the economy, especially in the financial sector, Obama and his major advisers, Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner, seem content to tweak the system, not truly reform it. Nevertheless, while I agree with Paul Krugman that the stimulus program needs to be larger, it is large enough to stop the recession and begin the turnaround.
Here is where health care reform is crucial. Health care expenditures now total close to 20% of the total GDP. If we can reduce expenditures down to the level found in the next highest expenditure as a percentage of GDP (Switzerland), we could reduce health care expenditures by $800 BILLION PER YEAR, freeing up that money for economic expansion. As Medicare and Social Security did in the past, health care with a strong government option will show the efficacy of government and expose the lies of the Cassandras in the conservative movements. Under FDR's policies, this country has experienced its longest uninterrupted periods of economic growth and expansion. The greatest economic crashes in our history have occurred after periods of Republican laissez-fare policies. It is time to return to the policies that have made this country great. Obama can make this happen if he remains firm and pushes a strong health care reform with a government option.
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